What do you understand by the term technical analysis? How is it done?
Ans. The success of an enterprise depends upon
the entrepreneur doing the right thing at the right time. Starting a new
venture is a very challenging and rewarding task. A businessman has to take
numerous decisions, right from the conception of a business idea, upon the
start of production. Hence, the identification of the project to be undertaken,
requires an analysis of the project in depth. Therefore, a technical and financial
analysis of the project has to be undertaken.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Analysis of technical and engineering aspects
is done continually when a project is being examined and formulated. Other
types of analyses are dependent and closely intertwined with technical
analysis. Technical analysis is concerned primarily with:
Materials and inputs
An important aspect of technical appraisal is
concerned with defining the materials and inputs required, specifying their
properties in some detail, and setting up their supply programme. There is an
intimate relationship between the study of materials and inputs and other
aspects of project formulation, particularly those concerned with location,
technology, and equipment.
Materials and inputs may be classified into
four broad categories:
(i)
raw
materials,
(ii)
processed industrial materials and components,
(iii)
auxiliary
materials and factory supplies, and
(iv) utilities.
(i) Raw materials— Raw materials (processed and /or semi processed)may
be classified into four types: (i) agricultural products, (ii) mineral
products, (iii) livestock and forest products,
and (iv) marine products.
(ii) Processed industrial materials and
components— Processed industrial
materials and components (base metals, semi-processed materials, manufactured
parts, components, and sub-assembly represent an important input for a number
of industries. In studying them the following questions need to be answered: In
the case of industrial materials,
what
are their properties?
What is the total requirement of the project?
What
quantity would be available from domestic source?
What quantity would be available from foreign
sources?
How dependable are the supplies?
What has been the past trend in prices?
What is the likely future behaviour of prices?
(iii) Auxiliary materials and factory
supplies— In addition to
the basic raw materials and processed industrial materials and components, a
manufacturing project requires various auxiliary materials and factory
supplies, like chemicals, additives, packaging materials, paints, varnishes,
oils, grease, cleaning materials, etc.The requirements of such auxiliary
materials and supplies should be taken into account in the feasibility study.
(iii) Utilities— A broad assessment of utilizes (power, water, steam,
fuel, etc.) may be made at the time of input study though a detailed assessment
can be made only after formulating the project with respect to location,
technology, and plant selection. Since the successful operation of a project
critically depends on adequate availability of utilities the following points
should be raised whiled conducting the input study:
What quantities are required?
What are the sources of supply?
What would be the potential availability?
What are the likely shortages/bottlenecks?
What
measures may be taken to augment supplies.
Production technology
For manufacturing a product/service often two
or more alternative technologies are available. For example:
Steel can be made either by the Bessemer
process or the open hearth process.
Cement can be made either by the dry process
or the wet process.
Soda can be made by the electrolysis method
or the chemical method.
Paper, using bagasse as the raw material, can
be manufactured by the kraft process or the soda process or the simon cusi
process.
Vinyl chloride can be manufactured by using
one of the following reactions: acetylene on hydrochloric acid or ethylene or
chlorine.
Choice of technology
The choice of technology is influenced by a
variety of considerations:
(i) Principal inputs— The choice of technology depends on the principal
inputs available for the project. In some cases, the raw materials available
influences the technology chosen. For example,the quality of limestones
determines whether the wet or dry process should be used for a cement plant. It
may be emphasized that a technology based on indigenous inputs may be
preferable to one based on imported inputs because of uncertainties characterizing
imports, particularly in a country like India.
(ii) Investment outlay and production cost— The effect of alternative technologies of
investment outlay and production cost over a period of time should be carefully
assessed.
(iii) Use by other units— The technology adopted must be proven by successful
use by other units, preferably in India.
(iv)
Product mix— The
technology chosen must be judged in terms of the total product-mix generated by
it, including saleable byproducts.
(v) Latest developments— The technology adopted must be based on latest
development in order to ensure that the likelihood of technological
obsolescence in the near future, at least, is
minimized.
(vi) Ease of absorption— The ease with which a particular technology can
be absorbed can influence the choice of technology. Sometimes a high-level
technology may be beyond the absorptive capacity of a developing country which
may lack trained personnel to handle that technology.
Product Mix
The choice of product mix is guided primarily
by market requirements. In the production of most of the items variations in
size and quality are aimed the production of most of the items, variations in
size and quality are aimed at satisfying a broad range of customers. For
example,production of shoes to different customers. It may be noted that sometimes
slight variations in quality can enable a company to expand its market and
enjoy higher profitability. For example, a toilet soap manufacturing unit may
by minor variation in raw material, packaging, and sales promotion offer a high
profit margin soap to consumers in upper-income brackets. While planning the
production facilities of the firm, some flexibility with respect to the product
mix must be sought. Such flexibility enables the firm to alter its product mix
in response to changing market conditions and enhances the power of the firm to
survive and grow under differentsituations. The degree of flexibility chosen
may be based on a careful analysis of the additional investment requirements
for different degrees of flexibility.
Plant
capacity
Plant capacity (also referred to as production
as capacity) refers to the volume or number of units that can be manufactured
during a given period. Several factors have a bearing on the capacity decision.
(i) Technological requirement— For many industrial projects,particularly in
process type industries, there is a certain minimum economic size determined by
the technological factor. For example, a cement plant should have a capacity of
at least 300 tonnes per day in order to use the rotary kiln method; otherwise,
it has to employ the vertical shaft method which is suitable for lower capacity.
(ii) Input constraints— In a developing country like India, there may be
constraints on the availability of certain inputs. Power supply may be limited;
basic raw materials may be scarce; foreign exchange available for imports may
be inadequate. Constraints of these kinds should be borne in mind while
choosing the plant capacity.
(iii) Investment cost— When serious input constraints do not obtain, the
relationship between capacity and investment cost is an important
consideration. Typically, the investment cost per unit of capacity decreases as
the plant capacity increases.
(iv) Market conditions— The anticipated market for the product/service
has an important bearing on plant capacity. If the market for the product is
likely to be very strong, a plant of higher capacity is preferable. If the
market is likely to be uncertain, it might be advantageous to start with a
smaller capacity. If the market, starting from a small base, is expected to
grow rapidly, the initial capacity may be higher than the initial level of
demand further additions to capacity may be affected with the growth of market.
(v) Resources of the firm— The resources, both managerial and financial,
available to a firm define a limit on its capacity decision. Obviously, a firm
cannot choose a scale of operations beyond its financial resources and
managerial capability.
(vi) Governmental policy— The capacity level may be constrained by governmental
policy. Given the level of additional capacity to be created in an industry,
within the licensing framework of the government the government may decide to
distribute the additional capacity among several firms.
Location and site
The choice of location and site follows an
assessment of demand, size, and input requirement. Though often used
synonymously, the terms 'location' and 'site' should be distinguished. Location
refers to a fairly broad area like a city, an industrial zone, or a coastal
area; site refers to a specific piece of land where the project would be set
up. The choice of location is influenced by a variety of considerations: proximity
to raw materials and markets, availability of infrastructure, governmental
policies, and other factors.
(i) Proximity to raw materials and markets— An important consideration for location is the
proximity to sources of raw materials and nearness to the market for final
products. In terms of a basic locational model, the optimal location is one
where the total cost (raw material transportation cost plus production cost plus
distribution cost for final product) is minimized. This generally implies that:
(i) a resource-based project like a cement
plant or a steel mill should be located close the source of basic material (for
example, limestone in the case of a cement plant and iron-ore in
the case of a steel plant);
(ii) a project based on imported material may
be located near a port; and
(iii) a project manufacturing a perishable
product should be close to the center of consumption.
However, for many industrial products
proximity to the source of raw material or the center of consumption may not be
very important. Petro-chemical units or refineries, for example, may be located
close to the source of raw material, or close to the center of consumption, or
at some intermediate point.
(ii) Availability of infrastructure— Availability of power,transportation, water,
and communications should be carefully assessed before a location decision is
made.Adequate supply of power is a very important condition for location—
insufficient power can be a major constraint, particularly in the case of an
electricity-intensive project like an aluminium plant. In evaluating power
supply the following should be looked into: the quantum of power available, the
stability of power supply, the structure of power tariff, and the investment
required by the
project for a tie-up in the network of the
power supplying agency. For transporting the inputs of the project and
distributing the outputs of the project, adequate transport connections—whether
by rail, road, sea, inland water, or air— are reqired. The availability,
reliability and cost of transportation for various alternative locations should
be assessed.Given the plant capacity and the type of technology, the water requirement
for the project can be assessed. Once the required quantity is estimated, the
amount to be drawn from the public utility system and the amount to be provided
by the project from surface or sub-surface sources may be determined. For doing
this the following factors may be examined: relative costs, relative dependabilities,
and relative qualities. In addition to power, transport, and water, the project
should have adequate communication facilities like telephone and fax etc.
(iii) Governmental policies— Governmental policies have a bearing on location.
In the case of public sector projects, location is directly decided by the
government. It may be based on a wider policy for regional dispersion of
industries. In the case of private sector projects, location is influenced by certain
governmental restrictions and inducements. The government may prohibit the
setting up of industrial projects in certain areas which suffer from urban
congestion. More positively, the government offers inducements for establishing
industries in
backward areas. These inducements consist of
outright subsidies, concessional finance, tax relief, and other benefits.
(iv) Other factors— Several other factors have to be assessed
before reaching a location decision: ease in coping with environmental pollution,
labour situation, climatic conditions, and general living conditions. A project
may cause environmental pollution in various ways:
it may throw gaseous emission; it may produce
liquid and solid discharges; it may cause noise, heat, and vibrations. The
location study should analyse the costs of mitigating environmental pollution
to tolerable levels at alternative locations.The labour situation at
alternative locations may be assessed in terms of:
(i)
the
availability of labour, skilled, semi-skilled, and unskilled;
(ii)
the
past trends in labour rates, the prevailing labour rates, and the projected
labour rates; and
(iii)
the
state of industrial relations judged in terms of the frequency and severity of
strikes
and lockouts and the attitudes of labour and
management.
The climatic conditions (like temperature,
humidity, wind, sunshine, rainfall, snowfall, dust and fumes, flooding, and earthquakes)
have an important influence on location. They have a bearing on cost as they
determine the extent of air-conditioning, de-humidification, refrigeration,
special drainage, etc., required for the project. General living conditions,
judged in terms of cost of living, housing situation, and facilities for
education, recreation, transport, and
medical care, need to be assessed at
alternative locations.
Machinery and equipment
The requirement of machinery and equipment is
dependent on production technology and plant capacity. It is also influenced by
the type of project. For a process-oriented industry, like a petrochemical
unit,machinery and equipment required should be such that the various stages
have to be matched well. The choice of machinery and equipment for a
manufacturing industry is somewhat wider as various machines can perform the
same function with varying degrees of accuracy. For example, the configuration
of machines required for the manufacture of refrigerators could take various
forms. To determine the kinds of machinery and equipment requirement for a
manufacturing industry, the following procedure may be followed:
(i) Estimate the likely levels of production
over time. (ii) Define the various machining and other
operations. (iii) Calculate the machine hours
required for each type of operation. (iv) Select machinery and equipment
required for each function. The equipment required for the project may be
classified into the following types: (i) plant (process) equipment, (ii)
mechanical equipment, (iii) electrical equipment, (iv) instruments, (v)
controls, (vi) internal transportation system, and (vii) other machinery and
equipment.
In addition to the machinery and equipment, a
list should be prepared of spare parts and tools required. This may be divided
into: (i) spare parts and tools to be purchased with original equipment, and
(ii) spare parts and tools required for operational wear and tear.
Constraints
in selecting machinery and equipment— In selecting the machinery and equipment,
certain constraints should be borne in mind:
(i)
there
may be a limited availability of power to set up an electricity intensive plant
like, for example, a large electric furnace;
(ii)
there may be difficulty in transporting a
heavy equipment to a remote location;
(iii)
workers
may not be able to operate, at least in the initial periods, certain sophisticated
equipment such as numerically controlled machines;
(iv)
the import policy of the government may
preclude the import of certain types of machinery and equipment.
Structures and civil works
Structures and civil works may be divided into
three categories: (i) site preparation and development, (ii) buildings and
structures, and (iii) outdoor works.
(i) Site preparation and development— This covers the following:
(i) grading and leveling of the site, (ii)
demolition and removal of existing structures, (iii) relocation of existing
pipelines cables,roads, powerlines, etc., (iv) reclamation of swamps, draining
and removal of standing water, (v) connections for the following utilities from
the site to the public network: electric power (high tension and low tension),
water (use water and drinking water), communications (telephone, fax, etc.),
roads, railway sidings, and
(vi) other site preparation and developmental
work.
(ii) Buildings— Buildings and structures may be divided into:
(i)factory or process buildings; (ii) ancillary buildings required for stores,
warehouses, laboratories, utility supply centers, maintenance services, and
others; (iii) administrative buildings; (iv) staff welfare buildings,
cafetaria, and medical service buildings; and (v) residential buildings.
(iii) Outdoor works— Outdoor works cover (i) supply and
distribution of utilities (water, electric power, communication, steam and
gas); (ii) handling and treatment of emissions, wastages, and effluents; (iii)
transportation and traffic arrangements (roads, railway tracks, paths, parking
areas, sheds, garages, traffic signals, etc.): (iv) outdoor lighting; (v)
landscaping; and (vi) enclosure and supervision (boundary wall, fencing,
barriers, gates, doors, security posts, etc.).
Project charts and layouts
Once data is available on the principal
dimension of the project— market size, plant capacity, required technology,
equipment and civil works,conditions obtaining at plant site, and supply of
inputs to the project— project charts and layouts may be prepared. These define
the scope of the project and provide the basis for detailed project engineering
and estimation of investment and production costs.
Work
Schedule
The work schedule, as its name suggests,
reflects the plan of work concerning installation as well as initial operation.
The purpose of the work schedule is:
To anticipate problems likely to arise during
the installation phase and suggest possible means for coping with them.
To establish the phasing of investments
taking into account availability of finances.
To develop a plant of operations covering the
initial period (the running in period).
Often, it is found that the required inputs
like raw material and power are not available in adequate quantity when the
plant is ready for commissioning, or the plant is not ready when the raw
material arrives.
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